韓國 輸出의 趨勢와 豫測

Exports of Korea: Trends and Prospects

I. Preface Exceedingly unfavorable balance of payments of Korea is mainly caused by the wide gap between imports and exports of commodities. Therefore, reduction of the gap can, surely, contribute to the improvement of the balance of payments. From this viewpoint, it is natural that export promotion is greatly emphasized. However, can Korea export three hundred million dollars in 1967, or six hundred million dollars in 1971? And does expansion of exports itself contribute much to the improvement of the balance of payments, as is said? This paper is just attempted to examine these problems. II. Trends of Exports(l) 2.1 Exports by type In Korea, bonded improvement export was begun in 1962. The importance of the bonded improvement export in total exports is not large yet, but it is steadily growing. Principal bonded improvement goods are clothes, aluminium plates, artificial flowers, sweaters, vinyl products, etc. And main export markets are the United States of America, South Vietnam, Japan, and Hong Kong. The bonded improvement export has cont_ributed to the variety of export items. 2.2 Exports by commodity According to the trends of exports by commodity, we can classify the export goods into one of the following categories: (a) rising trend 1) steeply rising, 2) slowly rising, 3) rising with oscillation, 4) rising from falling; (b) falling trend 1) steeply falling, 2) slowly falling, 3) falling with oscillation, 4) falling from rising; (c) stationary trend; (d) oscillatory trend; (e) irregular trend. In the category of steeply rising trend, fresh fish, dried fish, crustacea and molluscs, raw silk, zinc ore, veneer sheets and plywood, clothes, cotton fabrics, and rayon fabrics are included. But the importance of a commodity to the total exports fluctuates severely year by year. III. Trends of Exports(2) 3.1 Exports by, commodity group, by use, and by sector. Classified by commodity group, 86.1 per cent of the total exports are filled with inedible crude materials, food and live animals, and manufactured goods classified chiefly by material. Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material had a weight of 10 per cent in 1962, but in 1963 it rose rapidly up to 30 per cent. Classified by use, 90.7 per cent of export goods are raw materials and consumer's goods. Therefore, Korean export can be called raw material-and consumer's goods-oriented. Sorted by sector, mining products maintained the top in exportation up to 1962. But in 1963 the highest was manufactured goods. The exports ratio of products of primary and secondary industries was 81:19 in 1960, but it changed to 48:52 in 1963. 3.2 Exports by market The decreasing ratio of relative exports to developed countries is a general tendency. But still majority of Korean exports is shipped to Japan and the United States of America. Exports to developing countries are mainly to Hong Kong and South Vietnam. The portion of exports to the markets of Japan the United States and Hong Kong is, on the average, 79. 5 per cent. Therefore exportation of Korea is a few-country-oriented type. 3.3. Exports by market-cum-commodity Korean exports to the United States are mainly manufactured goods while exports to Japan are products of primary industry. Exports to ECAFE areas and other countries are products of primary and secondary industries. IV. Forecasting of Exports 4.1 Methods of forecasting In general, there are two methods in forecasting future exports: the one is to forecast them on the ground of expectations of export traders, and changes in supply conditions; the other is to forecast with functional relations. The latter is divided again into two groups: method using trend or regression equations, and method using indices of the intensity of exports as explanatory variables of functional relations. In this paper, however method using linear trend equations is adopted; in this case it is unreasonable to fit parabolic equations to data. And no drastic ch