시기별 거시경제 환경변화에 따른 주택시장의 가격변동성 연구

Chronological Analysis of Housing Market Variation in Terms of Macroeconomic Changes - Focused on Apartment Sale and Cheonse Prices -

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to investigate the time series impact of macroeconomic change on casual relationship between apartment resale price and cheonse price during exchange and financial crises. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study mainly used granger causality analysis to investigate the causal relationship between apartment and cheonse prices when significant economic change has occurred. For that, this study obtained various macro economic data and apartment prices from Jan 1988 to Dec 2011. (3) RESEARCH RESULTS This study found that Korea housing market became lively when economic cycle became a stable after IMF period. It also showed that a signal for resale price granger-caused a signal cheonse price in the housing market after 1990's. However, the cheonse price couldn't have casual relationship to resale price specifically during the foreign exchange and financial crises. 2. RESULTS The results of this study indicates that housing market in Korea has very sensitive to the economic crisis. In particular, in that period, resale price can affect cheon price significantly, the housing policy for cheonse price stabilization should first focus on its relationship to the resale price.