주택 전세/매매가격비율 변동분석에 관한 연구

The Dynamic Correlation Between Chonsei Price, House Prices, and House Lease Price to House Sale Price Ratio

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study is to theoretically and empirically analyze the dynamic correlation between house lease price (on a deposit basis), house sale price, and house lease price to house sale price ratio. (2) RESEARCH METHOD In this study, research method was through time series analysis (VECM). (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS As a result of the impulse response analysis, the house lease price to house sale price ratio shows positive (+) response against 1 unit impulse of house lease price, and the house lease price to house sale price shows negative (-) response against 1 unit impulse of house sale price. Therefore, it is shown that the results of theoretical models and empirical analysis are same because sale price increase gives negative impact to house lease price to house sale price as the previous theoretical models and cointegration coefficients. In addition, as a result of the examination on the size of the reaction of the house lease price to house sale price ratio against 1 unit impulse of house sale price and 1 unit impulse of house lease price, it is shown that the signs are in the opposite direction, but the impact and extent of sale price are greater than those of the lease price 2. RESULTS The signs of the theoretical models and empirical models are consistent on the whole. There is differences between regional but there is a possibility that the current increase of house lease price to house sale price causes the further increase of house sale price. Therefore, the government should prepare the policy measures for the stabilization of house price and the effective and immediate counter plan by continuously watching house market.