서울시 임대료 대비 매매가격비율의 추세와 순환 분리

Trend-Cycle Decomposition Cheonsei to Sales Ratio in Seoul Using State Space Models

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study separated the Cheonsei to sales ratio into trend and cycle using unobserved components model of state space models. (2) RESEARCH METHOD In this study, research method was through state space models. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS With the empirical analysis most Cheonsei to sales ratio was explained by adopting trend and changes. However it is obvious that there exist a transit cycle change due to failure of instant adjustment and it shouldn t be ignored. 2. RESULTS The Cheonsei to sales ratio is associated with the structural and trend changes of house price, so the policy maker who is in charge of making housing policy have to monitor persistently on the data housing related and foresee the market move to reflect it to the policy.