전세자금가용성과 전세수급지표가 주택전세가격에 미치는 영향 분석

An Analysis on Impact of Chonsei Loan Availability and the Chonsei Demand and Supply Index on Chosei Prices in Korea

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES In this paper, I analyze the impact of chonsei loan availability and the chonsei demand and supply index on chosei prices of the house in Korea. (2) RESEARCH METHOD I implement the empirical analysis, using the OLS estimation, VECM, and Granger causality analysis, and the monthly data. Based on the data and the model, I try to find what variables, especially the credit guarantee on chonsei which is the proxy of loans for chonsei, affect chosei prices. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS Macroeconomic variables such as housing prices, interest rate, and loans for chonsei affect chonsei prices. Those variables make a significant influence on chonsei prices expectedly. Especially, the test shows that loans for chonsei make a strong impact on chonsei prices. 2. RESULTS In the analysis the OLS results show that chonsei prices respond negatively by interest rate, positively by housing prices, and positively by credit guarantee for the chosei and the chonsei demand & supply index. The VECM results show that the long run equilibrium relationship between chonsei prices and interest rate. housing prices. and credit guarantee for the chonsei holds as the OLS estimates imply. The results of short run dynamic effects test accord with our expectations. And I have observed that interest rate, housing prices, and the chonsei demand & supply index do Granger-cause chonsei prices. Credit guarantee for the chosei and chonsei prices do Granger-cause each other. The results of this study indicate that interest rate, housing prices, loans for chonsei are important factors affecting chonsei prices. It suggests the liquidity for the chonsei market also becomes an important factor of chonsei prices. Thus, it is seriously considered the possibility of the bubble in the chonsei market when doing expansionary policies on credit for chonsei or houseless people.