미국의 통화정책과 환율이 국제 원자재 가격에 미치는 영향

The Effects of US Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates on Commodity Prices

This article examines the effects of US monetary policy and the US dollar exchange rate on international commodity prices using a structural VAR framework. Results show that unanticipated contractionary monetary policy and dollar appreciation in general drive down commodity prices over the 1983~2011 period However, while the monetary policy shocks have significant effects on commodity prices in the 1980s and 1990s, the exchange rate shocks and/or inflation shocks increasingly contribute to post-2000s fluctuations of commodity prices. This highlights the importance of closely monitoring exchange rates and inflation as well as monetary policy in understanding commodity price movements.