환율변화에 따른 국내 제조업 수익률 효과 분석

The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Korean Manufacturing Firm s Profit Rate

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the Korean manufacturing firm s performance in the period of 1990-2010. We examine how changes in real effective exchange rate affect profit rate of each manufacturing sector. Our empirical analysis shows that depreciation of the Korean Won against currencies of Korea s major trading partners has a positive effect on profit rate. Also, it is shown that as the ratio of σade over total sales increase, the influence of real effective exchange rate on profit rate becomes stronger To summarize, exchange rate of the Korean Won has a statistically significant effect on profit in Korean manufacturing industry, That is, a dramatic change in exchange rate may have a negative effect on economic stability in the short-run and sustained growth in the long-run. The government should make efforts to prevent excessive fluctuation of the Korean Won, and to strengthen the financial safety net against sudden reversal of capital flows.