마크업 충격과 금융 충격이 한국의 수출입에 미치는 영향

Effects of Markup Shocks and Financial Shocks on the Korean Exports and Imports: An Analysis based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

This study aims to do quantitative analysis on the effects of the main factors that caused fluctuations in Korean exports and imports since the beginning of the millennium. A New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model that incorporates various disturbances, including markup shocks, financial shocks, and other foreign shocks, is applied to make sure how these shocks affect the exports and imports in Korean economy. Relative importance of those shocks are estimated with the model using Bayesian Maximum Likelihood. Forecast error variance decomposition shows that financial shocks and markup shocks played relatively bigger roles than the shocks traditionally considered in the literature did.