한-GCC FTA에 따른 관세 및 소비세 개혁정책이 정유사의 이익과 정부세수에 미치는 영향

The Effect of Tariff-tax Reform on Korean Oil Firms Profits and Revenue after the Korea-GCC FTA

As the Korea-GCC FTA is expected to be signed in the near future, the Korean government has begun to be concerned about revenue losses following tariff cuts on imported crude oil. This study extends Shim and Jung (2012) taking Korean oil firms exporting activities into account, and examines the effects of tariff cuts and consumption tax reform on the oil firms profits and government revenue. When Korean government implements the plausible tariff-tax reform strategy, which is to increase consumption taxes at a scale of less than the tariff cuts times the pre-tax reform crude oil price. it turns out to increase oil firms profits in domestic supply of petroleum products, but decrease their profits in exports of petroleum products. Therefore, when this strategy is implemented, Korean oil firms increase domestic supply and reduce exports of petroleum products. Regarding the government revenue, this strategy causes revenue loss, which is the similar results of Shim and Jung(2012). However, the negative effect of the strategy on government revenue in this study turns out to be not as big as Shim and Jung(2012) s result. This indicates that the revenue effect of the same strategy suggested by Shim and Jung(2012) is exaggerated.