Technological Path Dependence, Convergence, or Both?

This study seeks to explicate the temporal dynamics of international technology diffusion in the technological community. By combining path dependence and convergence arguments, I address who adopts what and when. I specifically investigate whether country-level technological capabilities can influence an agent's choice of a novel or established technology and, if so, how the effect of country-level technological capabilities differs before and after technology commercialization. To test my arguments, I use research proceedings published by the international Electric Vehicle Symposium (EVS) from 1990 to 2009. Empirical findings indicate that, as path dependence suggests, agents from technologically leading countries are prone to discuss a more established technology in the pre-commercialization period. In contrast, consistent with a convergence argument, evidence also reveals that agents from technologically lagging countries are more likely to adopt a well-established and successfully launched technology during the post-commercialization period. This study enriches the literature on technology diffusion and adoption by uncovering the sequential effects of path dependence and convergence on agents' technology adoption before and after technology commercialization. It also contributes the literature on international technology diffusion by highlighting the importance of a country's relative technological standing for determining the country's own technological path.