선거비용이 후보자 당락에 미치는 영향력에 관한 연구

The Study on the Influence of Expenditure for an Election Campaign of Candidates : Related to the 18th National Assembly Election

본 연구의 목적은 후보자의 선거비용지출액 비율이 당선에 미치는 영향을분석하고 정책적 함의를 도출하는데 있다. 이를 위해 지난 제18대 국회의원선거의 후보자 중 득표율 10%이상을 획득한 자를 표본으로 선정하여 선거비용지출액을 비교ㆍ분석하고, 그 선거의 공정성 여부와 후보자의 선거비용지출액 비율이 당선과 관련이 있는지를 분석하였다. 그리고 그 결과에 따른 정책적 함의를 도출하였다. 지난 제18대 국회의원선거에서 후보자 선거비용 평균지출액 135,189천원이며, 당선자는 표본 후보자보다 4.4%를, 차점 낙선자보다 3.7%를 더 집행하였다. 유권자의 89.0%가 지난 제18대 국회의원선거를 공명선거라고 평가하고 그 이유를 "유권자들의 공명선거에 대한 의식 향상"을 들었다. 선거비용지출액과 당선될 확률에 대한 상관관계분석에서 상관계수 0.153으로 낮은 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 선거비용지출액비율이 높으면 당선될 확률이 높으나 그 효과는 매우 미미한 것이다. 그리고선거비용지출액 비율이 당락에 미치는 영향력에 대해서는 다른 변수요인과비교하여 상대적으로 낮게 분석되었다. 가장 높게 나타난 것은 현직효과이며다음은 성별, 정당, 학력, 현정부평가 순으로 나타났다. 따라서 선거환경의변화에 적응할 수 있도록 선거운동의 규제를 완화하고 선거비용의 규제는 투명성이 보장될 수 있도록 하여야 한다.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence related to being elected and to draw a policies implication with the expenditure rate of a candidate for an election. For this study some candidates of the 18th National Assembly Election, who won over 10% turnout, were chosen as a sample. They were compared and their total election cost was analysed as to whether or not it is fair in an election. Finally, they were also checked to see if this was related to being elected or not. Policy implications followed the results. In the last 18th National Assembly Election, the average election expenditure was 135,189 thousand won. An elected person's expenditure is higher than sample candidates by 4.4%, and 3.7% higher than the second winner. On the other hand, 89.0% of electors evaluated the election as a fair election. As reasons for this fair election evaluation, they admitted the main reason was the enhancement of electors' awareness. In the analysis of correlation between the expenditure amount of an election and the possibilities of being elected, the correlation coefficient was shown as relatively low, 0.153 ; this means that the higher election cost is almost equal to the possibilities of being elected, however the consequences are relatively slim. When compared to other factors, the election expenditure's rate of influence on success or defeat in an election was analysed to be relatively lower. The highest things this study showed was an advantage of current official positions next the distinction of sex, political party, academic background, and evaluation of current administration in the usual order. In order to adapt oneself to election circumstances, the election regulations should be more lenient than before and restricting election expenditure should be guaranteed for transparency in the election system.