가족의 미래와 여성ㆍ가족정책전망(Ⅰ)

The Future of the Family and Foresight for Women and Family Policies in Korea (I)

Ⅰ. 서론 1. 연구의 필요성 및 목적 □ 저출산ㆍ고령화와 같은 급속한 인구학적 변동과 함께 가족형태와 의식은 빠르게 변화하고 있음. 가족개념 및 의식변화와 연동된 가족기능변화는 결과적으로 가족구성원간의 호혜에 의존해왔던 가족돌봄이 돌봄서비스의 구매나 공적서비스 이용 확대로 이어지게 됨. 그러나 동시에 여전히 가족에 대한 과도한 기대와 가치를 부여하고 있는 계층 또한 적지 않고, 이는 결과적으로 서비스의 사각지대로 이어짐. □ 이와 같은 현재 한국사회의 압축적인 가족변동의 과정은 곧 가족에 대한 이해와 인식에서의 세대간 분절과 복잡성을 강화시키는 요인으로 작용해 왔고, 이같은 불균형성은 곧 가족의 개념과 기능에 대한 사회적 합의의 토대를 약화시키기에 가족의 현재적 변화와 미래의 변화방향을 객관적으로 예단하는 일의 중요성과 필요성은 증가하고 있음. □ 이에 본 연구에서는 가족의 미래에 대해 향후 20년을 전망하여 가족변화와 삶의 모습에 대한 중장기 예측을 함으로써 새로운 여성ㆍ가족정책영역의 발굴과 주요한 가족지원정책의 범주 및 정책설계를 모색해보고자 하였음. 2011년 올해의 본 연구는 1차년도로서 가족의 변화를 진단하는 환경분석과 가족미래 예측요인 발굴로 가족의 미래모습에 대한 사전적 연구임. □ 이에 본 연구의 목적은 다음과 같음. ○ 첫째, 객관적 가족 미래환경을 전망함. 이를 위해 국내외 미래연구 동향과 OECD 국가의 가족변화 흐름을 살펴보고, 다양한 방법론을 통해 한국 가족변화의 환경을 전망함. ○ 둘째, 주관적인 가족 미래환경을 전망함. 일반 국민들의 미래에 대한 인식과 다양한 가족형태에 대한 수용도를 확인하여, 가족변화를 받아들일 주관적 환경조성 상황에 대해 진단함. ○ 셋째, 이와 같은 객관적, 주관적 가족 미래환경 전망을 통하여 가족미래 대응을 위한 여성ㆍ가족정책 방향을 제시함. 2. 연구방법 □ 문헌연구 및 통계자료 분석 □ 환경스캐닝(Environmental Scanning) □ 코호트요인법을 통한 장래인구가구추계 □ 전문가 조사와 시나리오 기법 □ 가족의 미래에 관한 국민의식조사 □ 자문회의 및 전문가 워크숍 □ 위탁과제 수행 및 과제간 정례회의 운영

Based on the predicted shapes of families twenty years after, this study attempts to explore new areas of women's and family policies and redesign main family support policies. As the first installment of the fourth-year study, this study examines the family environment and investigates the driving forces of family changes. The aims of the study are as follows. First, the study attempts to predict the objective family environment in the future. To this end, it reviews the literature of future studies in Korea and foreign countries and examines family changes in OECD countries to try to predict future changes in the family by employing a variety of methods. Second, the study attempts to predict the subjective family environment in the future. The prediction is made by examining people's perceptions of the future and identifying how and to what extent they will accept a variety of predicted changes in the family type. Third, in light of these predictions, the study proposes the directions of women's and family policies in response to family changes in the future This study uses various methods for the analyses above: literature review, analysis of statistical data, environmental scanning technieque, future population and household estimation through cohort component method, Delphi method and scenario technique, a survey on people's perception of the future of the family, advisory meetings and expert workshops. The results of the study are as follows. First, important changes in the family environment in OECD countries include the declining significance of institutional marriage and women's increasing participation in the labor market. Such a situation is generating a need to rebalance conventional gender role and producing widespread gaps in care giving. Second, the environment scanning analysis and expert survey shows that the driving forces of family changes in Korea include low birthrate, aging, women's increasing participation in the labor market, increasing migration, decreasing marriage rates, and increasing divorce rates. In particular, low birthrate and aging are the two important factors that all of the various analytical methods used point to in unison. Third, the future population and household estimation and expert survey this study uses to predict the shapes of future families generated by those driving forces shows first that the household size is likely to be reduced and marriage tension to deepen; second, that eating out is likely to increase, the contracting parties in a marriage are likely to take the initiative in the whole process of marriage, and the married couple is likely to be the center of the family relationship. Fourth, the survey on the future shapes of the family people predict shows that parents' unlimited support of their young children and children's direct support of their aging parents, as practiced in the present, are expected to be reduced. IT is expected to reduce face-to-face contacts between family members. Regarding family rituals, the formal aspects of ancestral, burial, and marriage rites are expected to be reduced, while the rites themselves are likely to be maintained. Finally, the analysis of how people accept various family types shows that there is a large difference between different categories of people. The category that is most likely to accept various family types or abnormal family types accounts for about 40 percent of the sample. This category consists mainly of the so-called 2030 generation (people in their twenties or thirties), people of high income, or the highly educated. Based on the above research findings, this study proposes the following policy directions. First, there need to be developed policies regarding low birthrate that take into full account the demands of the 2030 generation. Second, there need to be built infrastructures to resolve conflicts between generations, races, and classes. Third, marriage needs to be an attractive institution