국민연금 연금자산이 개인의 예상소득대체율에 미치는 영향 분석

An Analysis of the Effects of an Estimated National Pension Wealth on an Individual's Expected Retirement Income Replacement Rate -Focusing on an Estimation Method-

본 연구는 국민연금 가입이력 자료를 이용하여 가입기간 및 기본연금액을 추정하였다. 아울러 국민연금 예상소득대체율 산출에 있어 기존연구의 문제점들을 완화시키고자 국민연금 가입이력과 한국노동패널 자료를 결합하였다. 추정결과, 국민연금의 표준화된 평균 기본연금액과 소득대체율은 각각 0.327과 35.6%로 나타났다. 한편, 국민연금 기대연금자산을 고려하였을 때 그렇지 못한 경우와 비교하여 소득분위별, 코호트별 예상소득대체율이 평균적으로 각각 14.4p%와 14.1%p로 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 비록 두 자료를 결합하는 방법에 대한 논란의 여지가 있으나 분석자료의 한계를 극복하고자 하는 데 있어서는 그 가능성을 제시하였다고 할 수 있다.

This research has mainly focused on two aspects. The one is that we have applied a new panel regression originated from Fullerton and Rogers (1993) to solve the problems which previous research had found in terms of estimating the expected retirement income replacement rate (ERR). Therefore, we combined Korean Labor & Income Panel Study with the National Pension's historical data of the insured. The other is that we have evaluated the effect of the expected National Pension benefits on the individuals' retirement income and the ERR. The ERR of the income quintile and cohorts respectively increases by average 14.4%p and 14.1%p when the expected National Pension benefits are added to the individually annuitized retirement income. Even though there are some methodological issues to combine two data sets, this research can give a possible solution to overcome data limitation to estimate the ERR and the expected NP benefits. We can more accurately estimate the average lifetime income and contribution periods using by the National Pension's historical data of the insured, and also show that there is possible way to combine two data sets based on income classes and age structure in more systematical and relevant manner.