공화당 내전과 2014년 미국 중간선거

Republican Civil War and the 2014 U.S. Midterm Elections, Focusing on Senate Elections

The article aims to examine the impact of ultra-party conflict of the Republican Party on the 2014 U.S. midterm elections, focusing on how the Republican Civil War or the conflict between Tea Party and Republican Establishment was reflected in the process of Senate primary and general elections. Another concern of this article is to explore how intra-party conflict of the Republican Party is related to currently deepening party polarization and post-election political process including legislative process. The analysis of factors influencing primary results shows that anti-Obama sentiment, white percentage of state residents, economic confidence index score in each state and amount of campaign fund raised by candidate are the major factors affecting the margin of victory of Establishment candidates over Tea Party-backed candidates. It is also found that the nomination of relatively moderate Establishment candidates including all incumbents in primaries paved the way for the Republican victory in the 2014 Senate general elections, despite Tea Party-backed candidates' challenge to Establishment candidates in primary process somewhat lowering Republican vote rates in Republican-tilting states unlike in tossup states.