울산지역경제의 교역조건과 총요소생산성 간의 관련성 분석

Impact of Terms of Trade on Total Factor Productivity in Ulsan City in Korea

Recently Ulsan economy is deepening dependence on capital investment, and total factor productivity has declined steadily. In this study, the relationship between the total factor productivity and terms of trade are investigated. The commodity terms of trade in Ulsan deteriorated from 1.93 in 1995 to 0.94 in 2013, which was down by 51.2% over the period. According to the estimation results, total factor productivity could decrease by 3.73% if terms of trade fell 10 percent point. In addition, contribution of terms of trade on economic growth in Ulsan economy based upon 'the extended production function' is estimated as 6.3%. For a sustainable economic growth of Ulsan economy, the effective management of terms of trade is deemed urgent.