미국산 원유 수출규제의 변화전망과 국내 석유산업의 대응방향

Coping strategies of the Korean petroleum industry upon lifting the U.S. crude oil export ban

Recently, a heated debate on the lifting of the crude oil export ban instituted way back in 1975 took place in the U.S. Senate and this has attracted the attention of global oil market stakeholders. More liberalized U.S. crude oil exports, potentially derived from the debate, would have a substantial influence on the global oil market, and consequently, this would affect the Korean economy indirectly as well as the Korean petroleum industry directly. Thus, this study aims to scrutinize the ongoing issue of allowing U.S. crude oil exports, to forecast its future direction and to recommend coping strategies. Three feasible scenarios of changes in the U.S. oil export restrictions were considered: liberalizing less limited exports under the current regulations, modifying or repealing the regulations. The most feasible one was expected to be liberalizing limited exports under the current regulations. To cope with the such changes in U.S. crude export policy, utilizing crude oil swaps was recommended to import U.S. light crude oil into Korea, besides diplomatic efforts which affect the decision in lifting the crude oil export ban.