금융위기 이후 대중국 FDI와 소재ㆍ부품수출의 관계 변화

The Changing Relationship between Korea's Outward FDI toward China and Its Exports of Materials and Components

In existing empirical trade papers, regression results demonstrate a strong positive relationship between Korea and Japan's foreign direct investment toward China and their exports to China in intra-industry trade. These results have been derived by using data before the 2008 financial crisis. But since the 2008 financial crisis, Chinese trade structure has been dramatically changed. Intermediate goods have been produced by local input producers in China at a fast pace, thus, substituting the imports of intermediate goods from foreign countries. Reflecting this circumstance in China, this paper investigates the relationship between Korea's FDI stocks toward China and its exports of materials and components during the period from 2009 to 2013, and compares the results to the regression results during the period from 1999 to 2008. Regression results find no evidence of positive relationship between Korea's outward FDI toward China and its exports of intermediate goods in the period after the 2008 financial crisis contrary to the strong positive relationship between the two same variables during the period before the 2008 financial crisis. This result implies that the positive relationship of Korea's outward FDI with its intermediate exports to China during the pre-financial crisis era is no longer applicable.