배출권거래제 국제연계의 경제적 효과 분석

Economic Impacts of the Korean Emissions Trading System Linkages with the EU and US

This paper investigates economic impacts of linking Korean ETS(emissions trading system) with the EU and US. We use a global computable general equilibrium model with 11 regions and 11 industries to estimate various variables including GDP. exports, exchange rates, market prices of permit, and emissions trading volumes under the scenarios corresponding to five linkage types of Korean ETS with the EU and US. We summarize the findings as follows. First, the linkage of Korea with the EU ETS shows that there may not be economic gains until 2020. Secondly, the Korea-US ETS linkage reveals that there will have some economic benefits around 2020. Third, multilateral linkages are better than bilateral linkages in terms of economic efficiency and stability.