Youth Employment Probability and Its Change over Time

This paper reports the youth unemployment probability and its change over time in Ulsan, using the longitudinal method, and compares them with the youth in the nationwide and other age groups within Ulsan. We could find the unique features of the local labor market in terms of the mismatch between labor demand and supply by occupations. The longitudinal analysis of employment presents that the youth employment probabilities reflect the local features. First, the employment probabilities increase over the job-seeking periods for the youth as well as other age groups, but significant numbers of the young remained as being the long-term unemployed. Second, the youth employment probabilities are lower in Ulsan than in Korea, for the estimates at the production and service related jobs are much lower in Ulsan. Third, the youth employment probabilities are lower than the older experienced job-seekers within Ulsan. The difference between the two groups also comes from the gaps at the nonwhite collar occupations in Ulsan. Even though the local labor market provides many jobs at the occupations, the vacancies are occupied more by the experienced older job-seekers than the young. Therefore we need the comprehensive employment policies of the local government as well as the central one to address the employment issues of ‘the lost generation.’