북한 非核化, 통일의 前提인가 그 産物인가?

On Sept. 2, 2015, President Park Geun Hye had a summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders had a deep discussion about peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula and expressed grave concern about North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and provocative actions, such as nuclear and missile tests. In the aftermath of the summit, dialogues and consultations between South Korea, China, and North Korea seem likely to increase. At the summit, President Park urged China “to play a crucial role to bring about meaningful changes from the North.” She is determined to start preparations for unification. The question is how to manage the North Korean nuclear issue. As the Park-Xi summit talks indicate, the North’s nuclear issue is likely to remain within the Six-Party Talks framework, which has been reliant on China’s political attitudes toward North Korea, and has not been very effective. Will the Six-Party Talks, to resume sometime in the near future,produce any effective solution to the North Korean nuclear issue? Whether South Korea could initiate proactive roles in handling the North’s nuclear issue depends on its independent military capability to deter and retaliate against the North and whether its military capability will be recognized by neighboring countries, including North Korea. The Park Geun Hye government’s North Korea and unification policies are framed by such concepts as the trust-building process, Northeast Asian peace and cooperation, the Eurasian initiative, and others. These concepts cannot be implemented unless other parties in the region are willing to cooperate. Such cooperation should be a reflection of each party’s interests in and concerns with policies pursued by South Korea and their views about their national potential, not only economic but strategic and military, including the stability and steadiness of its alliance with the United States. Against this backdrop, the dismantlement of North Korean nuclear programs and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula should be treated as a prerequisite for unification, rather than a subsequent outcome. The latter course seems likely to allow the North Korean nuclear issue to remain unresolved,with uncertainties as to when and under what conditions unification will occur.As President Park said “We Korean people can no longer tolerate to live with the North’s nuclear threat and blackmail on our heads.”