중국의 경상수지와 위안화 환율간 구조적 충격에 대한 파급효과

The Effect of the Renminbi (RMB) Exchange Rate Reflation on China’s Current Account

This paper’s data used a monthly dataset of China’s RMB exchange rate covering the period from January 1998 to December 2014 the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method was used considering the short-run structural shocks in the model among variables. Then, it was also used in order to analyze the impact which the normal RMB exchange rate had on China’s current account. Empirical evidence shows that industrial production shocks account for most of the short-run volatility in the current account. We are able to explain this finding about the current account since industrial production shocks also cause a significant short-run appreciation in the normal exchange rate. An implication is that in order to reduce its trade surplus effectively after 1998, China should have maintained expansion of its production through an industrial restructuring policy and a revaluation of the Chinese Renminbi exchange rate.