EU의 무역구제조치 결정요인 분석

Trade Remedies Decisions and Macroeconomic Variables in the EU

The EU economy has utilized various types of non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Among others, antidumping duties and countervailing duties characterize the EU trade remedies. Therefore, the current study reveals the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the number of investigations of antidumping duties and countervailing duties in EU. This paper starts by testing stationarity applied to variables. The unit root tests show that it is not unrealistic to assume that all concerned variables are integrated of order one. Where the concerned variables are integrated of the same order, it is necessary to examine whether there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between the concerned variables, using cointegration tests. Johansen’s cointegration test shows that there is a cointegrating relationship among real GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, trade balance, and import penetration ratio by the number of investigations to antidumping duties and countervailing duties. The error correction models show that trade balance causes the number of investigations to antidumping duties and countervailing duties. Consequentially, the deterioration in the trade balance situation revealed to lead to more frequent use of EU trade remedies.