The Influence of Presidential Approval on Vote Choice in U.S. Presidential Primaries: How does presidential approval affect the voting behavior of opposition party supporters?

This study examines how presidential approval affects opposition party supporters' vote choices in the U.S. presidential nomination elections. Opposition party supporters who disapprove of the incumbent president are more likely to support a candidate they judge as having a chance of defeating the incumbent candidate in November of the election year. In addition, they are likely to vote strategically by increasing their support for the front-runner as the nomination contests progress. To empirically test these arguments, this study analyzes how presidential approval affected vote choices in the 2004 and 1984 Democratic presidential primaries using the 2004 and 1984 Democratic presidential primary exit poll data. The results of the analysis suggest that presidential approval affects the voting behavior of opposition party supporters by motivating them to support a candidate who could defeat the incumbent candidate in November and that opposition party supporters who disapprove of the incumbent president use the front-runner status as a cue to determine which candidate could defeat the incumbent candidate.