동적DCF 및 실물옵션모형에 의한 부산항(북항) 재개발사업의 가치평가분석

A Study on the Value Appraisal of Redevelopment in Busan North Port based on Dynamic Discounted Cash Flow Method & Real Options

This study is based on the possible problematic situations that may arise when pursuing publicly contested PF businesses and conducts an empirical analysis on value assessment that can cope with the future uncertainty. A random variable was identified for the process of evaluating the current value, and by utilizing it in the Monte-Carlo Simulation Method, a value assessment by the dynamic DCF method, which considers uncertainties in the real flow, was carried out. Next, by applying various real options to cope appropriately with possible scenarios, an empirical analysis on value assessment through binominal option pricing model was performed. It can be inferred that, although until now uncertainty was a subject of avoidance or elimination, by applying the dynamic DCF method, a more varied and flexible value assessment of the cash flow against future uncertainties can be ensured. In addition, applying the real option valuation to various risk factors can increase the business value.