울산항만지역의 항만투자와 조세변화의 경제적 효과에 관한 연구

A Study of the Economic Effects on Reducing Tariff and Increasing Government Expenditure in the Ulsan Port

The purpose of this study is to Analyze recent 6 projects by the time-series analysis the effects on Ul-san Harbor in Korea during the year of 2008~2016. Using variables are total expenditures of Ul-san port, income(GRDP), interest rate, CPI & PPI, Total export & import in Ul-san, Total export & import in Dae-Gu customs head quarters in terms of value. At first, after unit root test, there isn’t unit root, so analyze the short-run causal relationship between government expenditures, tariff on Dae-Gu customs and the rest variables. After Granger test, we found that the most important significant 4 variables are GRDP, CPI, PPI, Total export & import in Ul-san. It was followed by analyzing the VAR model. Through the impulse response function & variance decomposition analysis, it reveals that increasing expenditures in Ul-san Port causes a slight increasing interest rate, especially short-run interest rate. Also, it makes decrease CPI & PPI and increase of port inhabitants income, GRDP. In short, it appeared Investment on Ul-san Harbor is slightly more effective than decreasing tariff on Ul-san Harbor.