2인 가구 장기주택수요 전망에 관한 연구

Long-term Housing Demand Forecast of Two-person Households in Korea

This study attempted to analyze changes in the average area of households in terms of the quantities of housing demand and type by applying to the modified Mankiw-Weil model the permanent income and housing expenses estimated from the sample of 2-person households in the 15th labor panel data of the Korea Labor Institute. The long-term quantities of housing demand by the young-couple households was found to show a negative rate of increase since 2031. But a rate of increase in average area per household was found to be 1.66% by year. And the rate of increase in the total quantities of housing demand by the elderly-couple households was found to continue increasing. It was found to be highest and the average area of their housing was found be 139.7㎡, the biggest area in 2035. But a rate of increase in average area was found to be lowest at 0.91%. And it was found that the single-parent households would have the smallest area by year. There is a need to consider the reduction in the total quanitities of housing demand and household characteristics when formulating the long-term housing supply policy for the young-couple households. And it is thought that there is a need to focus on making the policy for smooth downsizing of the elderly-couple households and the policy for expanding the area of single-parent household.