강남재건축 아파트와 비재건축 아파트의 가격 관계분석

Analysis of Price Relations between Reconstructed and Non-Reconstructed Apartments in Gangnamgu

One of the popular accounts broadly spread in the South Korean housing market is that the prices of reconstructed apartments in Gangnam have effects on those of non-reconstructed apartments. Since such popular accounts are derived from experiences, they do have high possibilities of errors. This study thus set out to examine whether the popular account would be true or false. As far as a theory is concerned, it is a low possibility that the prices of reconstructed apartments will have impacts on those of non-reconstructed apartments. Given their value structure, reconstructed apartments are more sensitive to expected prices than non-reconstructed ones. When the housing prices rise, there is a tendency of expanding increases. The prices of reconstructed apartments make a faster increase in the early days, which can easily create an illusion that there are special relations between them. The study analyzed the long-term time series trends between 2000 and 2015 and found that the price variability of reconstructed apartments was considerably higher than that of non-reconstructed ones with no special connections between the two types of apartments. The VEC model-based empirical analysis results showed no special connections between the two, either. The model, which took into account the proper expected prices of non-reconstructed apartments, illustrated that the prices of reconstructed apartments in Gangnam-gu did not explain the changing prices of non-reconstructed apartments in the area. In short, it is not true that the prices of reconstructed apartments have influences on those of non-reconstructed apartments in Gangnamgu.