초고층 개발사업과 경기변동과의 연관성 분석

Analysis of Connections between Super High-Rise Building Development Projects and Business Fluctuations

본 연구는 세계적인 초고층개발의 추세와 더불어 국내에서도 지속적으로 이루어질 초고층개발에 대하여 경기변동과의 연관성을 분석한 결과, 지역경제, 생산자물가, 소비자물가 등 거시경제 변수와 초고층 개발사업 간에 의미 있는 분석결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 또한 초고층 개발사업은 서울의 지역경제에 큰 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났으며, 생산자 물가와 관련해서는 초고층 개발사업이 전체 생산자물가지수와는 무관했지만 부동산과 관련한 물가지수에는 영향을 미친 것으로 제시되었다.

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study set out to review the concepts and systems of super high-rise buildings, empirically examine the effects of super high-rise building development on business fluctuations, and figure out connections between super high-rise building development projects and business fluctuations. (2) RESEARCH METHOD Trying to propose an economic approach to super high-rise building development, which will be consistent in the domestic market by following the global trend of super high-rise building development, the study analyzed its connections with business fluctuations based on domestic cases. (3) RESEARCH FINDING Only the supply variable of super high-rise building development projects had no unit root, and the remaining macroeconomic variables had one. The unit roots of analysis variables were gone only at the second differential scheme, which finding was different from the stability of macroeconomic variables being usually secured after the first differential scheme. Its cause was estimated that the variables used were annual variables. Most of the variables had their unit roots gone after the second differential scheme with the stability of time series secured. 2. RESULTS The analysis results found significant connections between macroeconomic variables including local economy, producer prices, and consumer prices and super high-rise building development projects. Not only did super high-rise building development projects have effects on the local economy of Seoul, but they also influenced the real estate-related price index. They had nothing to do with the overall producer price index.