AHP를 이용한 초대형 컨테이너선 투자리스크 우선순위 분석

An Application of AHP on Priority of the Risk Factors for the Mega Containership Investment

Although the oversupply of tonnage for liner market It s kept ordering the Mega Containership(over 18,000 TEU) by the market participants. In moment of the order for korea liners following the plan by the belonging alliance it needs to be understanded that what is the exact risk factors of the mega container ship inestment and how important those factors are for the decision. In this paper, we are using the AHP to extract the risk factors and analyze the importance of those risks. First risk factors for the maga container ship investment are extracted as follows. The finance risk which contains the debt coverage ability, the finance structure robustness, the finance quality and The operating risk which contains the market status, the sustainability of competitiveness, the terminal environment of operators and the market risk which contains the dramatic devaluation of the ship, the regional regulation risk, the economic recession. The AHP results show that finance risk comes first of 38.3% importance. and the operating risk and market risk are followed by at each importance of 31.1 % and 30.6%. and we proposed 4 implications in the results. ① the finance indices must be well managed because the finance risk is the most important factors for all ② there is information asymmetry among liners and financers. so the way to fill this gap is needed to clinch the investment contract. ③ ship finance targeted indices must be developed. ④ ECA has played important role in the ship finance market in korea.