中朝关系的现实基础与前景展望

China-DPRK Relations: The Ambiguous Alliance could continue?

After DPRK s fourth nuclear test and the launch of the satellite, China and the United States stand on the opposite for the concrete measures of imposing sanctions on DPRK. Through repeated consultations, these two countries reached a limited “agreement” and the UN Security Council finally passed the resolution 2270 which expended sanctions against DPRK. The relations between China and DPRK raised concerns once again. As is known to all, China and DPRK established alliance relations in the form of treaty in the early 60s of last century. After the end of the cold war, the relationship between them began to fluctuate with ups and downs. And due to the continuous upgrading of the DPRK’s nuclear issue and the improvement of China-ROK relations, the China-DPRK alliance relations become “ambiguous”. In the future, under the circumstances of the game between superpowers is becoming increasingly fierce , the prospect of the unification of the Korean Peninsula is still not clear and DPRK’s nuclear program has not been stopped, China and DPRK should maintain the alliance relationship or turn to the normal state relations? The decisive factor depends on the nature of state interests and the essential requirement of geopolitical competition. China-DPRK ambiguous alliance is still likely to continue.

朝鲜第四次核试验并发射卫星后, 围绕进一步制裁朝鲜的具体措施问题, 中美立场凸显对立。经过反复磋商, 中美达成有限的“一致”, 安理会最终通过扩大制裁朝鲜的2270号决议, 中朝关系再度引发关注。众所周知, 中朝两国在上个世纪60年代初以条约形式确定了同盟关系。冷战结束后, 中朝关系出现波动和起伏。随着朝核问题的升级和中韩关系的提升, 中朝关系的现实基础受到冲击并呈现出“背离”倾向。面向未来, 在大国博弈日趋激烈、朝鲜半岛统一前景仍不明朗以及朝鲜核计划未见止步的情况下, 中朝之间是维持“同盟”关系?还是转向正常国家关系?决定性的因素取决于国家利益和地缘政治竞争的本质要求, 中朝“暧昧同盟”仍有可能延续下去。