재무분석가의 영업현금흐름예측 여부와 이익예측 정확성

Analysts’ Operating Cash Flow Forecasts and Accuracy of Earnings Forecasts: Korean Evidence

상당수의 재무분석가들은 이익예측치 이외에 추가적으로 영업현금흐름예측치를 제공하고 있다 (본 논문의 경우 관측치의 대략 40%). 그러나 영업현금흐름예측치를 제공하는 재무분석가들이 보다 뛰어난 분석가들인지에 대한 연구는 아직 미미한 상황이다. 영업현금흐름을 적절히 예측하기 위해서는 전체 재무제표의 상호관계 및 이익의 구성요소에 대하여 보다 깊게 분석해야 하는 과정을 거쳐야 하므로 영업현금흐름을 예측하는 재무분석가들은 해당 기업에 대해 보다 높은 수준의 분석을 할 것이라고 예상된다. 본 논문은 이익예측치와 더불어 영업현금흐름예측치를 제공하는 재무분석가들의 이익예측치 정확도가 높은지를 실증하였다. 실증분석 결과, 이익예측치만을 제공하는 재무분석가의 이익예측치와 영업현금흐름예측치를 함께 제공하는 재무분석가의 이익예측치의 정확성에 유의한 차이가 없음을 발견하였다. 영업현금흐름예측치를 같이 제공하는 재무분석가가 발생액 및 영업현금 흐름의 지속성에 대하여 더 잘 평가하는지에 대한 추가분석에서도 더 우수하다는 결과를 발견하지 못하였다. 위의 결과들은 국내에서 영업현금흐름예측치를 제공하는 재무분석가들의 재무분석방법이 더욱 정교하고 정확하여 이익예측치의 정확성이 높으리라는 예상을 지지하지 못하고 있다.

Recently, a significant number of analysts tend to issue operating cash flow forecasts as well as earnings forecasts. This study investigates whether analysts’ issuance of operating cash flow forecasts enhances accuracy of their earnings forecasts. Some argue that, to forecast operating cash flows, analysts should predict components of earnings–cash flows and accruals, and they should have more comprehensive knowledge on firm’s financial statements and the relation of accounts of each financial statement. If this is the case, analysts who issue operating cash flow forecasts would provide more correct earnings forecasts than analysts who do not issue. Call et al.(2009; 2013) document that accuracy of earnings forecast is higher for analysts who issue operating cash flow forecasts than analysts who do not issue. They also argue that operating cash flow forecasts are informative by showing that the stock market reacts to the change in operating cash flow forecasts. Their results support the demand hypothesis that analysts provide operating cash flow forecasts in order to satisfy users’ needs for additional information. On the other hand, analysts might provide operating cash flow forecasts just resulting from a preliminary extension of earnings forecast rather than from an undergoing precise and systematic process. For example, analysts might first forecast earnings and then forecast operating cash flows by just deducting depreciation and amortization from their earnings forecasts. If operating cash flow forecasts just result from an extension of earnings forecasts, earnings forecasts by analysts who issue operating cash flow forecasts cannot be more accurate than earnings forecasts by analysts who do not issue operating cash flow forecasts. Givoly et al.(2009) argue that operating cash flow forecasts are not obtained in sophisticated manners and they are much less accurate than earnings forecasts. They also report that operating cash flow forecasts are just weakly related to stock returns, and repute Call et al.(2009) by arguing that operating cash flows forecast are not informative to investors. The debate on usefulness of cash flow forecasts continues in the literature(Call et al. 2013, Givoly et al. 2013, and Bilinski 2014). We examine whether analysts’ earnings forecasts accompanied by cash flow forecasts are more accurate than those not accompanied by cash flow forecasts. Our sample consists of Korean listed companies which have analyst forecasts data provided by I/B/E/S detail history database during the period of 2004 to 2010.