한국 항만물류산업의 성장 결정요인 추정

An Estimation on the Determinants of Growth of Korean Port-logistic Industry

This paper analyses the determinants of growth of Korean port-logistic industry by using the time series of growth of Korean port-logistic industry and the framework of cointegration equation and vector error correction model. To do this, We construct analysis models using the variables associated with the growth of the port logistics industry, and select the optimal model among the models. The main results are as follows: In long-term, cointegration test results suggest that the main determinants of growth of Korean port-logistic industry are the variables of labor, capital, exchange rate, but we find that the impact of the variables of the economic growth and port cargo volume on growth of Korean port-logistic industry is not clear. The variable of capital has a robust causality with growth of Korean port-logistic industry, but labor not in short term. We can’t definitely conclude that the causality between growth of Korean port-logistic industry and economic growth, exchange rate and port cargo volume exists. The results of analysis show that it will be useful as a basic information about policy variables related to growth of port logistics industry.