투입산출분석을 이용한 구제역의 경제적 파급효과 분석

(Economical Ripple Effects of the Foot-and-Mouth on the Korean Economy using Input-Output Analysis)

In 2000, FMD outbreak occurred regionally, in 2010, it broke out from 11 cities and provinces and it was like a national disaster. In connection with this, the damage increased rapidly. In 2000, period of FMD had finished after 22 days, however, in 2010, it was so extended for 160 days and the number of heads for stamping out also increased from 148 times in 2000 to 20,799 times in 2010. After 2000, it is a feature that the damage of livestock sector has increased rapidly in domestic of Korea. That’s why we need to calculate the economical ripple effect for FMD outbreak and actively consider a countermeasure for solutions of future damage. Based on this critical mind, this study has tried to analyze the ripple effects for the damage of FMD which was effected in national economy. This study differently from existing reports that estimated the cost of damage for single years measures secondary damages for FMD, using the Inter-industry relation table in 2000, 2002 and 2010. Especially the use of exogenous specification in analysis in order to remove errors which calculation is overlapped at the stage analysing an influence of other industries about changes in livestock differen-tiates this report with others. As a result of analysis, the damage of FMD focused on 1st and 2nd industry in 2000 and it gradually increased in 3rd industry such as wholesale, retailers, transportation and services. This result shows that we need to consider a countermeasure for 1st and 2nd industry as well as 3rd industry to reduce the damage of FMD.