거대억새를 이용한 바이오에탄올 생산의 경제성 분석

(An Economic Analysis of Giant Miscanthus for a Bio-Energy Crop)

Miscanthus is a promising bioenergy crop as a sustainable energy source in the future. To assess the economics feasibility of Miscanthus, the productivity and the cost of Miscanthus are identified as major variables. For the productivity, MISCANMOD is modified into STELLA. The simulation result shows that the productivity of Miscanthus in Korea is expected to be between 5~42 ton/ha, depending on environment. The simulated average is 25.8 ton/ha with probability of 0.68. For the cost, preparation of the land, planting and harvest cost are considered. The propriety of cost of rhizome is found to loom large. For the benefit, the direct net benefit at farm level and the net benefit at social level are considered. A status quo analysis indicates that the economic feasibility of Miscanthus is not secured. However, total sensitivity analyses, varying three variables simultaneously, indicate that the positive(+) social net benefit can be secured for scenario Ⅳ (productivity : 25.8 ton/ha, petroleum price : $1.49, rhizome price : 0) and scenario Ⅵ, Ⅶ, Ⅷ, Ⅸ (the productivity increases, petroleum price drops and rhizome price drops).