오차수정모형을 이용한 고추의 재배면적반응함수 추정

Estimating Acreage Response of Red Pepper by Using Error Correction Model)

Red pepper acreage response is very important for policy decision regarding red pepper production as well as mitigation of the high dependency of imported red pepper. Previous studies based on Nerlovian model resulted in spurious regression problem which can be overcome by using cointegration analysis and error correction model (ECM). This study attempts to investigate the influence of own price and related products prices on the acreage response of red pepper by using ECM. The results show that long-run elasticities are higher than short-run elasticities. Also own price elasticity of red pepper and cross price elasticities are high in the long-run. The results imply that government should focus on the factors that affect the long-run price elasticity and formulate the policies that ensure the profitable price to the producers.