조류인플루엔자(AI)와 육계가격 간의 관계분석

A Study on the Association with AI between Broiler Price

The paper attempted to analyze the long-term and short-term impacts of avian influenza (AI) on broiler prices in each chicken distribution stage in Korea. To this end, the paper utilized the farm price, wholesale price (after slaughtering), and consumer price of the broilers and applied the AI occurrence periods as dummy variables. From the analysis, both the results of the unit root test considering structural break and the results of the unit root test without consideration of structural break were shown to be non-stationary time series so it was shown that the structural break did not affect the stationarity of the time series. However, from the cointegration test conducted considering structural break and the cointegration test conducted without consideration of structural break, changes appeared in the long run equilibrium, that is, the cointegration test when considering the structural break. In other words, occurrence of AI was shown to affect the long run equilibrium relationship of the prices in each stage of the long term distribution. From the analysis by VECM (Vector Error Correction Model), when deviations in prices occur between each distribution stage with structural changes, the wholesale price (after slaughtering) was shown to lead them to the long run equilibrium relationship. The AI has exhibited the tendency to occur every year since 2014, which is different from the other animal diseases. Considering the above points, it is considered that occurrence of AI will affect the consumption and prices insignificantly in the future. However, it is considered that measures to stabilize the wholesale price through management and supply and demand control of slaughtering broiler number will be necessary since AI occurrence was affecting the long run equilibrium price from the analyze results.