배추수급모형 추정을 통한 가격변동 시나리오 분석

Scenario Analysis of Price Fluctuation through Estimating Chinese Cabbage Supply-Demand Model

This study decomposes price fluctuation factors of chinese cabbage into three factors: change in acreage, yield response factors, and other factors affecting market sales volume. We estimate the parameters of yield response model and wholesale price model for each of the three types of cabbage: spring, highland, and autumn cabbage. Based on the estimation results, we conduct a scenario analysis to prepare an action plan to respond to sharp price fluctuations. The results of scenario analysis show that cabbage price stability in the harvest season depends on modest temperature and precipitation during growing season, minimized typhoon damage, and maintenance of stable crop acreage. If one of the factors affecting the harvest price is forecasted to change sharply, we need to take immediate measures on supply-demand stabilization.