한․미 FTA가 포도 농가의 재무구조에 미치는 파급영향

Effects of the Korea-US FTA on Grape Production and Farm Financial Performance in Korean Grape Farms

This study estimates effects of Korea-US Free Trade Agreement(FTA) on grape production and farm financial performance in Korean grape farms. For the analysis, recursive econometric models were set up to reflect changes in domestic demand for and supply of fresh grape caused by imported grape from the US. In addition, 21 grape farms in main production regions were surveyed to get farm financial data and their financial indicators were analyzed. The results show that grape production would decrease by 4.3%~15.6% depending on scenarios for next 15 years due to the Korea-US FTA. Farm financial performance would be deteriorated with years from the outset. Especially, owner equity would decrease faster than debt, thus leverage ratio gets worse.