국제 곡물가격 변동과 중국의 영향 분석

Analyzing the Fluctuations of International Grains Price and China’s Influence on It

The prevailing price of major grains has risen two to three times as compared to mid 2006. The primary reason for such sharp increase in grains price is often regarded as the changes in Chinese inventory rate and the increase in Chinese grains consumption. Thus, this research analyzed the current situation of international and Chinese markets for major grains and tested the viability of such predominant views through Granger Causality Test. The test results indicate that, despite of small difference among items, there is a significant concurrent movement between international and Chinese markets and that each one has direct and indirect mutual influence on the other. Especially, the analysis of monthly data indicates that the price of beans in China influences on the international market price, while that of yearly data indicates that the amount of wheat imported by China is affected significantly by the international price level. Considering the fact that the amount of Chinese international trade for grains increased since 2001, when China joined WTO, and the Chinese grains inventory is decreasing sharply, the mutual interdependence between the Chinese and international markets is expected to grow further in the future. Finally, when the low rate of Korean self sufficiency for agricultural products, increasing dependence of Korea on China, and the possibility of other major countries export bans, are taken into considerations, domestic and international preparations for food security are desperately needed.