미곡 생산의 기상영향 분석

Weather Impacts on Rice Production in Korea

The yield of rice production is affected not only by weather factors but also by technological factors such as breeding, dissemination, and cultivation and policy support as well. The objective of this paper is to measure impacts of weather factors on rice production using logistic functions. The rice yield in Korea has shown a stagnating or decreasing trend since the 2000s. As the factors contributing to such a change in the rice yield, high-quality variety development policy, increase of environment-friendly cultivation, and climate change including temperature rise have been mentioned. The result of an analysis on the factors that have contributed to the stagnation of rice yield in 2002~2003 and 2006~2007 showed that the weather factor had a far more impact on the yield than the technology factor. In 2002~2003, weather had a contributing factor of 72.0% whereas technology had a contributing factor of 28.0%. In 2006~2007, weather had a contributing factor of 61.2 % whereas technology had a contributing factor of 38.8%. Among the factors contributing to the rice yield change, the contribution of weather factors appear to have gradually increased such as 16.9% in 1980s, 25.1% in 1990s, and 28.3% in 2000s though its contribution ratio was not very high in the years when meteorological disasters occur.