한국 벼농사의 추세와 전망

Changing Trends and Prospects of Korean Rice Farming

Along with the changes in environmental circumstances, status of Korean rice farming has experienced rapid changes. Decrease of rice cropping area, decrease of per capita rice consumption, and decrease of economic importance of rice in a farm household s income are some examples of changes. To make the warnings on the changing trends many researchers have tried to figure Out prospects of Korean rice farming. Most of their results seem to fear for the shortage of rice in the future. They usually stick to the food security doctrine. However, it is easy to get the conclusion that there is a possibility of rice surplus rather than its shortage through the analysis of its trends. Rice import schedule under the MMA regulation of the WTO is one of the supporting conditions of rice surplus. This study tries to show the prospects of Korean rice farming until 2005 through the trend analysis, In 2005, there will be at least 200,000ha of rice field to be idle to make the equilibrium between supply and demand of rice in Korea. To cope with this problem, finding out proper crops to substitute for rice seems to be one of the urgent tasks of Korean agriculture.