시유수요의 구조변화와 예측

Analysis of Milk Demand with the Structural Change

Korean white milk demand was estimated in this study considering the structural changes. CUSUM and CUSUM square tests are applied to the annual and quarterly time series of the white milk demand. The tests indicate that the continuing increase trend in milk demand meets the turning point in 1989 and then the plat shape increase prevails after 1998. The milk demand is estimated using the separate quarterly time series; one for whole time series during 1975 : 1-2002 : 2 and another for 1989 : 1-2002 : 2.The performance of the forecasting ability measured by RMSE and Theil s U coefficient was sound. Two kinds of estimates could be used to construct the lower and upper bounds of the forecasting.