한우 수소의 기대가설별 가격위험

Estimation of Price Risk of Korean Native Mate Cattle

The purpose of this study is searching an efficient way of reducing farmer s price risk in calculating expectation price for Korean native male cattle. The risks were estimated using ratio of expectation price to real price. The expectation price was calculated by expectation hypotheses. For estimation of the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the ratio, we used Logistic CDF. The results showed that price risk decreased more when we used RRW model based on rational expectation hypothesis than other models. And the expectation price was more close to real price when the weight was 0.6154 in the RRW model. These results are useful for farmer in calculating expectation price to decrease price risk.