쌀 협상 결과의 평가와 과제

The Implication of the Rice Negotiation Results Using Dynamic CGE Model

This paper is to analyze the impact of the rice negotiation on Korean economy and agricultural sectors using a dynamic multi-regional general equilibrium model. This results show that rice tariffication results in rice production and agricultural GDP unstable in contrary to MMA. The rice tariffication would be equivalent to 7.1~13.4 percent of MMA when Korea is the developed countries position in WTO/DDA negotiation. Also, the rice tariffication considers the risk and uncertainty such as exchange rate fluctuation, tariff reduction, and rice price changes. Therefore the MMA is more desirable than rice tariffication when the DDA modality is not determined.