농작물재해보험 국가재보험제의 시뮬레이션 모형연구

A Study on Policy Simulation Model for Government Reinsurance under Crop Insurance Program

The purpose of this study is to design a policy analysis model for the government reinsurance under crop insurance program logically and present the mathematical modeling methodology of the logical model. We used four kind of methodologies to achieve purpose of this study: (a) a ends-means hierarchy for making a foundation of policy analysis; (b) a CFD(Circular Flow Diagram) for designing logical policy analysis model; (c) a NGP(Nonlinear Goal Programming) for developing mathematical policy analysis model; and (d) a CCP(Chance Constrained Programming) for incorporating risk and risk reaction into mathematical model. In order to test, validate and put the model to practical use, we should consider as follows. A accurate data such as farm yield by district, liability and payoff of insurance contract should be gathered first in order to test and validate the model. When the distribution of farm yield by crops can not be assumed to have normality, methodology that can apply other empirical distribution to chance constraints equation should be concerned.