무역자유화에 따른 농산물 무역 패턴 변화에 관한 연구

Trade Liberalization and Pattern of Agricultural Trade: In the Case of the CUSFTA

Traditional trade theories based on the homogeneity assumption predict that trade liberalization stimulates industrial specification between countries, resulting in an increasing in inter-industry trade. On the other side, the theoretical consideration of Armington emphasizing the origin of production proposes a possibility that trade liberalization causes an increasing in intra-industry trade in agricultural products. An empirical test of the validity of these contradictory predictions are critical to understand the nature of agricultural trade. This article empirically examines the relationship between trade liberalization and the pattern of agricultural trade using a detailed agricultural trade data between Canada and the US under the free trade agreement(CUSFTA). This study finds that CUSFTA stimulates intra-agricultural-trade rather than inter-agricultural-trade between two countries, which is a supporting evidence of Armington hypothesis. This result implies that the Korean agricultural policy emphasizing the production specialization based on regions will be important to survive of Korean agriculture sector under the further trade liberalization.