농안기금 비축사업의 가격안정화효과

The Effects of Buffer Stock with Agricultural pride Stabilization Fund on Price Volatility, Seasonality, and Efficiency

The Agricultural Price Stabilization Fund, mostly raised by the earnings from state trade, is facing a fundamental reform. Future fund-raising will be impacted by the advances in the multilateral negotiation under WTO and in FTA coupled by the demand for less intervened domestic market. Nevertheless, the performance of the buffer stock operated by the fund has not been econometrically evaluated. The GARCH process is used for analyzing the structure of the second moment of basic agricultural prices. The results show that the monthly prices of red pepper and garlics became less fluctuating and the seasonality became mitigated during the period with the buffer stock than before. However, the stabilization effect of buffer stock has been less significant for onions, partly due to active private storage during the period. The market efficiency in terms of the speed of information transmission became worse after the buffer stock due to government intervention for all the three. The contribution of the buffer stock using the fund to the agricultural price stabilization for the products with less private storage should be recognized in the discussion process for the reform of the Fund.