DDA 협상에 따른 임업 피해액의 산정

Estimation of the Increased Amount of Imports of Forest Products Induced by Settlement of DDA

This study aims to estimate the increased amount of imports from foreign countries in forestry sector induced by settlement of DDA and furthermore to estimate the ripple effects of the increased imports to the related industries. Expected tariff rates were estimated according to the various suggested tariff lowering formulas and increased amount of imports for each estimated tariff rate was estimated by the commodity. Amount of increased imports for commodities estimated by American tariff lowering formula are as follows; 5.5 billion won for chestnut, 1.3 billion won for frozen chestnut, and 0.6 billion won for pine mushroom. On the other side, amount of increased imports for commodities estimated by Swiss tariff lowering formula and tariff harmonizing formula are 10 to 13 billion won for fiberboard, and 5.2 to 36.0 billion won for veneer board. Decreased amount of GDP was estimated to be 9.6 billion won due to the increased imports of chestnut, and pine mushroom. Increased imports of fiberboard, and veneer board were expected to bring about decline of GDP by the amount of 15.4 to 19.7 billion won, and 7.9 to 54.3 billion won, respectively.