충청남도 논 경지규모별 농가비율 예측* －마르코프체인과 이차계획법을 중심으로－

Prediction of Household Ratio by Rice Farm Scale in ChungCheongnam-province － Focused on Markov Chains and Quadratic Programming －

The Purpose of this study is to predict farm size per farming household in Chungcheongnam-province by using the Markov chains and Quadratic Programming.. The results are as follows; First, small-scale farms with less than 1.0㏊ of land are predicted to be still more than half (of total farming households) in 2025 as well. Second, large-scale farms with 3.0㏊-5.0㏊ land and extra large-scale farms with over 5.0㏊ of land are predicted to gradually expand their proportion in total farm scale. Third, middle-scale farms with 1.0㏊-3.0㏊ land are forecasted to be reduced in their relative proportion. It is required to take into account regional characteristics to improve the effectiveness of a rice industry policy. Therefore, this study has some significance in attempting to research on the ownership structure of rice production areas in consideration of target regions.