VAR을 이용한 도매가격, 반입량, 수입량 및 수요량의 동태적 상관분석

An Dynamic Analysis on the Relationship among Prices, Trading Volumes, Import Volumes and Demand Using VAR － Focused on Cabbage, Onions, and Garlic －

This paper analyses the interrelationship among wholesale price, trading volumes, import volumes and demand for three agricultural products (cabbage, onions, and garlic) by using the consumer panel and the data from the Korea Rural Economic Institute and the Korea Customs Service with a VAR model. The results are summarized as below. (1) The prices of three agricultural products decrease when trading volumes increase while the price of cabbage and onions decreases when import volumes increase. But the prices of three agricultural products have little effects on trading volumes. (2) The demand of three agricultural products increases when trading volumes increase while the demand of cabbage and onions increases when import volumes increase. (3) when demand of garlic and cabbage increases by 10%, their price increases by 2.5% and 1.3% respectively. And the demand of garlic has positive effects on import volumes of garlic.